Quantum Computing Risks Overstated, Say Bitcoin Researchers

Fears over quantum computing have once again sparked debate within the Bitcoin community, particularly following a late-2025 market dip linked to institutional concerns about cryptographic vulnerability. However, a closer look at the facts suggests that the threat remains largely theoretical, and that market reactions may be driven more by behavioural biases than by breakthroughs in quantum technology.

The primary concern rests on Neven’s law, which posits that quantum computers improve at a doubly exponential rate. If true, some argue Bitcoin’s elliptic curve cryptography could be broken within five years. But this rate of progress is speculative. Unlike Moore’s law, which is based on decades of observation, Neven’s law is more of an expectation than an empirical reality.

So far, quantum computers have failed to factor numbers larger than 15. Progress in physical qubits and error correction has not translated into practical advances in logical qubits or large-number factorisation—an essential requirement for breaking Bitcoin's security. Moreover, quantum error rates tend to grow with system size, presenting a scaling challenge that remains unsolved.

Chaincode Labs and other Bitcoin researchers recommend a prudent, long-term approach rather than hasty action. Taproot address types already introduce a layer of latent quantum resistance by obscuring public keys until after coins are spent. If needed, BIP360 and other efforts are exploring contingency strategies and soft fork options that could improve Bitcoin’s resilience.

The risk, experts argue, is not that a quantum breakthrough will happen overnight, but that the Bitcoin community may rush to implement inefficient quantum-resistant algorithms before they're truly necessary. Such changes could bloat the network and reduce performance.

For investors, the message is clear: quantum computing is a valid area of research and planning, but it should not be overstated as an imminent threat. Reacting prematurely risks overlooking Bitcoin’s broader strengths and the more pressing challenges it faces in a competitive global financial system.

• Chaincode Labs: https://chaincode.com – Bitcoin and Quantum Computing

• Rearden Code (Podcast): https://www.reardencode.com/podcast – Gwart Show Quantum Computing Podcast

• Nic Carter: https://www.niccarter.info – Bitcoin and the Quantum Problem

• BIP 360: https://bip360.org