What Bitcoin Did – Why Bitcoin’s Bull Market Isn’t Over
The Big Orange Carrot Photo by: WBD-969
Guest: The Rational Root
Show: What Bitcoin Did Podcast (https://www.whatbitcoindid.com/)
Despite Bitcoin “crashing” back toward the psychologically important $100K level, on–chain analyst The Rational Rootargues the bull market is not over, it’s evolving.
He explains that the recent drawdown has broken a 3-year bull market trend channel, which is understandably worrying for traders. But when you zoom out, the structure of this cycle looks very different from the explosive retail manias of the past. Instead of meme-coin blow-offs and 100x alt pumps, this run has been dominated by institutional flows, ETFs, and nation-state interest.
Who’s selling? Mostly long-term holders from early cycles, sitting on 1000x–10,000x gains and finally getting deep liquidity through the ETF “IPO moment”. Who’s buying? Institutions and newer cohorts gradually absorbing that supply.
Root believes this distribution phase may still deliver choppy price action and rejects the idea of another classic 80% drawdown. With no true blow-off top and no extreme overvaluation, he expects either a continued, more gradual bull market or, in the worst case, a shallower consolidation before the next leg higher.
His long-term view is unchanged: Bitcoin still has a credible path to $1 million, just not in the next two years.
Key Takeaways
Structure break, not thesis break
Price has fallen out of a 3-year bull trend channel, but on–chain data doesn’t support a full-blown, 80% style bear market.Early OGs are taking profits
Long-term holders from 2011–2017 are finally selling into deep ETF liquidity after 1000x–10,000x gains, a natural, healthy distribution.Bitcoin’s “IPO moment”
ETFs function as Bitcoin’s IPO-like event, letting early risk-takers exit while institutions scale in at size.Diminishing returns, softer crashes
Each cycle brings smaller multiples from the previous ATH, and Root expects smaller drawdowns too (think ~50% max, not 80%).From retail hype to reserve asset path
This cycle is less about altcoin casino mania and more about ETFs, treasuries, and nation-state strategy, consistent with Bitcoin’s march toward reserve asset status.The Spiral chart - tracking the 4 year cycle:
Check out the full episode here:
