Is Bitcoin undervalued?

The latest research from Bitwise Asset Management paints a striking picture: according to its newest Monthly Bitcoin Macro Investor report, Bitcoin is now trading roughly 66 % below the level implied by global monetary expansion, translating to a theoretical fair value of around $270,000. 

Bitwise notes that global liquidity (M2 money supply across major economies) has surged to a record $137 trillion amid widespread fiscal stimulus and more than 320 interest‑rate cuts over the last two years. 

Despite these reflationary conditions, BTC has remained subdued. Meanwhile, gold appears to have captured much of the recent liquidity bid, currently overshooting global money supply by about 75 %. 

This divergence, Bitwise suggests, creates a structural opportunity for Bitcoin: if BTC reverts to its long‑term “liquidity anchor,” that could imply a potential upside of nearly 194 %.

Moreover, institutional voices such as Jurrien Timmer of Fidelity view the gap between Bitcoin and long‑term money supply growth as a potential mean‑reversion setup. 

Complementing that view, macro analyst Matthew Mežinskis argues, in a recent TFTC piece, that Bitcoin’s recent corrections, including sharp daily drops, are largely noise when viewed against its long‑term “power‑law” adoption curve. 

He claims roughly 95 % of BTC’s long‑term price action is determined by network growth rather than macro volatility. 

According to Mežinskis, today’s price levels are historically cheap, low for only about 30 % of Bitcoin’s lifetime — implying that the network is early in its adoption phase and that downward swings do not reflect structural failure. 

Taken together, these reports deliver a consistent macro and network‑adoption thesis: Bitcoin remains under‑priced relative to global liquidity, and its long‑term growth trajectory remains intact. For investors focused on sound money, self‑custody and long‑term horizon, the message is clear: current volatility could represent one of Bitcoin’s most asymmetric entry points in years.

For investors focused on sound money, self‑custody and a long‑term horizon, the message is clear: current volatility could represent one of Bitcoin’s most asymmetric entry points in years. After an eventful week, including a sharp price drop with a swift 48‑hour recovery, Vanguard’s unexpected Bitcoin ETF launch, and major banks recommending a 4 % BTC allocation, the coming months could prove pivotal.