Bitcoin’s October Effect: A Decade of Outperformance

Each year, as the leaves turn and the fourth quarter begins, Bitcoin enters what many have come to call “Uptober.” It’s more than just a meme — it’s a pattern shaped by more than a decade of market behavior.

Since 2013, October has delivered an average return of +20.24%, making it one of Bitcoin’s most consistently strong months. The median return, a bit more tempered at +14.71%, still points to a steady seasonal uptrend during this time of year.

We’ve seen this October momentum take hold in years like 2017 (+47.81%), 2020 (+27.7%), and 2021 (+39.93%) — rallies that often spilled into even larger moves in November. In fact, November stands out as the strongest month on record, with an average return of more than +46%. That trend has led some to call it “Moonvember,” with October acting as the springboard.

Of course, history doesn’t guarantee the future. But in markets shaped by cycles, liquidity, and sentiment, seasonality still matters — especially in an asset as reflexive as Bitcoin.

As we step into another October, eyes are back on the charts. Not just because of what’s happened before, but because with Bitcoin, the past often rhymes — just before it surprises.