Analyst Alessio Rastani: Bitcoin Blow-Off Top Still Ahead, Death Cross May Signal Bottom

In a detailed interview with Cointelegraph, trader and technical analyst Alessio Rastani challenged the widespread view that Bitcoin has entered a new bear market, pointing instead to historical patterns, sentiment extremes and key technical levels suggesting a likely recovery.

Rastani contends that while Bitcoin has dropped sharply from its October all-time high of $126,000, this correction lacks the hallmarks of previous market tops. Notably absent, he says, is the “blow-off top” a vertical surge in price followed by steep reversal, that typically marks Bitcoin cycle peaks.

“Every major Bitcoin top since 2011 has been preceded by price acceleration,” he explains. “We didn’t get that in 2025.”

Instead, Rastani highlights the recent “death cross” — when Bitcoin’s 50-day moving average fell below its 200-day moving average, as a potential contrarian buy signal. Looking at historical data since 2011, he claims that in 75% of cases, such crosses have coincided with local bottoms and a 1–3 month rally.

“This isn't necessarily bearish, it's often a precursor to a bounce.”

Supporting that view is extreme pessimism across sentiment indicators, including the Fear and Greed Index and widespread bearish social media commentary. Rastani believes such negativity often precedes capitulation, marking a shift in trend.

While he remains cautious in the short term, he argues that Bitcoin remains in a broader uptrend unless critical support around $74,000 is broken. He sees a 15–20% rally as a likely scenario in the coming weeks, and expects potential new highs early next year — especially if a blow-off top materialises.

“If price fails to reclaim the 21-week EMA on the next bounce, then we’ll reassess,” Rastani noted. “But right now, technicals and sentiment suggest the path of least resistance is up.”

Check out the full video here: